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xii PREFACE The empirical evidence in this study supports an alternative explanation in con- trast to the current scholarly war and public opinion literature claiming the pub- lic’s willingness to accept risks when faced with gains. Through the application of prospect theory, this study’s fi ndings hold signifi cant implications for the under- standing of sources of foreign policy formation and public support for war. The results question the rationality of public opinion in the short term, during foreign policy formation, but recognize the rationality of public opinion in the long term. The study utilizes public opinion data and nearly 1500 presidential speeches over a four-year period to empirically support the argument that presidential framing of threats and losses, not gains, contributed to public support for war in Afghanistan, war in Iraq, and President Bush’s successful reelection campaign.