xxi It is difficult to determine the consequences of the Syrian Civil War ­ because it is still ­ ongoing. Bashar al-­Assad has, no doubt in large part ­ because of support from Rus­sia’s Vladimir Putin, retained his hold on power the Islamic State exists only in small isolated pockets throughout his country and his military forces have not suffered a significant defeat in a long time. On the other hand, millions of Syrian refugees ­will likely never return to his country, he has few friends or allies in the international community, and the Idlib Gov- ernorate in northwestern Syria remains a stronghold of a host of militia groups fighting against him. In short, the ­future of Syria is completely up in the air and not likely to be resolved anytime soon. That being said, ­ there are some ­ things that can be called conse- quences of the war no ­ matter what happens next, and ­ those are the unresolved issues sur- rounding Syria’s domestic po­liti­cal and social ­ future as it tries to rebuild the country’s tenu- ous geopo­liti­cal status in relation to the United States, Rus­sia, and its ­ Middle Eastern neigh- bors and the crisis surrounding the millions of ­people who have fled to countries around the region, as well as the rest of the world. Syria’s Domestic ­Future The unresolved issues for Syria in terms of its domestic ­ future center around the questions of politics and rebuilding. Po­liti­cally, Bashar al-­Assad’s government is still on a war foot- ing, which means that his priority is put- ting down the last of his opposition, which is largely isolated to the Idlib Governorate along the country’s northwest border with Turkey. He has given no indication that he intends to introduce any significant gov- ernment reforms, and no ­ viable opposition group seems to have the means to depose him. As fighting has decreased in intensity and frequency since 2018, however, many Syrians have turned their attention ­toward rebuilding, and it is likely ­ people ­ will start demanding routine government ser­vices be returned to their pre-­conflict state. ­ Will Assad face a new round of protests if he is not able to provide the basic functions of government? ­ Will his primary allies, Rus­sia and Iran, be willing to foot the bill in order to prop him up ­until Syria can rebuild some semblance of an economy? ­ These are ques- tions that currently have no clear answers. Syria’s Geopo­liti­cal ­ Future The consequences of Syria’s Civil War are not just local or even regional, they are global. While the anti-­Assad protests that sprang up in the southern city of Daraa in 2011 may have seemed very local in focus, especially for the protestors, the real­ity is Consequences of the Syrian Civil War
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