America at the Crossroads of Grand Strategy 7 This inaugural workshop focused on the challenges from peer rival China. Though focused on a single rival, these alternate futures align with those developed in the Air Force Strategic Environmental Assessment (AFSEA) 2016–2046. From this scenario-based process, the workshop developed and examined eight future scenarios across the following axes: Human Presence: How broadly and in what numbers do humans live and work in space? Commercial Potential: What is the economic level of new, persistent revenue from space activities? Leadership: To what degree does the U.S. coalition lead in the creation of the civil, commercial, and military space capabilities and in establishing the norms, standards, and international regulations in space? (e.g., based on free world concepts of a liberal international order?) Eight scenarios, or alternative futures to 2060, were derived by defin- ing realistic bounds as to the minimum and maximum developments along three axes of space power: human presence in space, economic importance of space, and U.S. coalition leadership in space. For this analysis we assumed that the states along each axis are independent of those along the other axes. The upper and lower bounds of each axis are summarized below. The bounds are derived from the SFW brain- storming activities informed by the assumptions as to the global state and the extrapolation of current space trends to 2060. The Annex con- tains detailed information of these trends and assumptions, especially relating to China’s space program. The methodology used to determine future scenarios is also presented in the Annex. Human Presence: How broadly and in what numbers do humans live and work in space? Upper 2060 Bound Thousands of individuals from many nations live and work from low Earth orbit (LEO), across the cislunar, Moon, and Mars regions. Increased human presence supports civil, commercial, and mili- tary needs and interests. There are one or more crewed bases on the Moon supporting sci- ence or economy. There are crewed habitats across cislunar space supporting the overall logistics for space manufacturing, tourism, and resource extraction.
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