8 The United States Space Force Habitats in space, the Moon, and Mars are progressively con- structed and maintained using extraterrestrial resources. Commercial Potential: What is the economic level of new, persistent rev- enue from space activities? Lower 2060 Bound The space economy advances marginally beyond short-term pro- jections of the current state. The economic value of the space economy is some small trillions of dollars and represents at most 1–2 percent of the global economy. The space economy is confined primarily to LEO/geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) and principally supports terrestrial needs for communications positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) capa- bilities information gathering and a low level of tourism. Leadership: To what degree does the U.S. coalition lead in the creation of the civil, commercial, and military space capabilities and in establishing the norms, standards, and international regulations in space? (e.g., based on free-world concepts of a liberal international order?) Lower 2060 Bound Many national, international, and transnational commercial inter- ests operate in space. Leadership in space is not based on an extension of the fundamen- tal terrestrial tenants of a liberal international order. The U.S. coalition is not the space leader in that they are at a seri- ous disadvantage in protecting their interests and capabilities in the civil, commercial, and military realms. Upper 2060 Bound Overall, the space economy is expanding rapidly, contributing at least 10 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) with wide, diverse participation from nations. The economy includes power, planetary communications, global information services, manufacturing, resource extraction, and tourism. Major industrial capacity for power, resource extraction, and man- ufacturing has developed, driven primarily by terrestrial demand, but increasingly to support the space economy.
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